Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics--Ablaze(?) Disrobed

The title for this blog post is from a famous quote by Mark Twain: “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” This jibe has been used often when someone is critiquing the misuse of numerical data which has been used to prove a point, tweak an image, propose a program, maintain a direction, adopt a strategy, and so on.

Statistical analysis is a mine field. The variables which effect data are so numerous that even the most well designed studies often prove to be in error. We have all heard reports in which further analysis has disproved a previously held opinion. This danger of error is often ignored by those who use statistics carelessly with a presumptive outcome in mind.

Why would any organization use faulty and carelessly acquired data to prove some desired point? There must be an agenda beyond the mere reporting of facts.

This illegitimate of use of numbers is the point of Twain's quote. Such statistics are worse that damned lies because the are double lies. They lie as to the facts. They lie as to their nature. Numbers used in this way are inferring an unassailable status as truth. You "can't argue with the numbers" -or- "numbers don't lie." But the people who misuse them do!

In the decades since the 1970s various church bodies have promoted world-wide evangelistic outreach programs (partly inspired by the Lausanne Congresses on World Evangelism, partly inspired by marketing strategies and Church Growth Movement theories). I have personally been witness to more than one of these campaigns. Usually these programs have a target goal by which they urge adherents to action. Sometimes they have a countdown, to-date, thermometer indicating their progress toward their goal. As the numbers rise it serves to encourage others to get on board and be part of the victory!

Oh, this sounds so good. Look at the scoreboard. We are on the winning side. We are doing something for God. It is something people can get excited about. It feels so right. It looks so good. It must be God's will.

The LCMS is one of the latest churches to adopt this strategy. They have named the campaign Ablaze. Their own web page declares the goal of reaching 100 million unreached and uncommitted people with the Gospel by 2017 (see http://www.lcms.org/pages/default.asp?navid=5247 ). Their own countdown thermometer indicates 8,664,671 people reached in 2509 events. This is an average of 3453 people per event. Wow, the day of Pentecost happened at 2509 events! [These numbers as of 8/12/08.]

Looks impressive, right? Wrong. It is deceptive. I ask once again, why would an organization use statistics in this manner?

The way in which the numbers have been acquired is questionable. They are obtained from reports by pastors and districts. As a pastor holds Ablaze events he reports the numbers for his events. Now these pastors want to look good so the temptation to inflate the numbers is is always present. Numbers are so important to show that a pastor is busy "growing the church." District presidents want to look good. Perhaps the numbers are further inflated. "Our district wants to be seen as a progressive district." The Synod wants to look good so they may "fudge" a little more, ad naseum. Self promotion is the dirty little secret behind the facade.

The basis of the numbers is a bigger problem. What constitutes an Ablaze event? What constitutes whether a person has been "reached"? The entire assumption behind the idea of "reached" is problematic. How can one measure this? One might ask what are the numbers concerning baptized and catechized believers as a result of these events? If one must "measure" success numerically why not use measurements that indicate relatively accurate results rather than some nebulous, ill-defined "event"? Reason--it wouldn't look as good.

Paul ran into a similar mindset. There were people who preached better than Paul, looked better than Paul. In my mind's eye I see a little, bent over, extremely nearsighted, Jewish man with a weak voice and a thick accent. Not your typical CGM leader. Yet he took the Gospel to the Gentile world and led a revolution by preaching nothing among them but Christ Jesus and Him crucified! He did not worry about image. He did not tickle ears with the sweet siren song of the latest fad. He preached the clear, unvarnished truth of God's Law and the Good News of forgiveness, life, and salvation in Christ. Read the following quote from Paul:

2 Cor. 10:10-12 [ESV] For they say, “His letters are weighty and strong, but his bodily presence is weak, and his speech of no account.” Let such a person understand that what we say by letter when absent, we do when present. Not that we dare to classify or compare ourselves with some of those who are commending themselves. But when they measure themselves by one another and compare themselves with one another, they are without understanding.

Paul hits at the core of this wrongheaded thinking. They are evaluating themselves by the wrong standards. Anyone can make himself look good. Simply pick a standard of measurement that can be manipulated to make the results look good. The Pharisees did this by easing the requirements of the Law. The CGM does this by counting the crowds. Damned lies and statistics! Exactly where does God command us to evaluate ourselves, our success, with numerical data whether numbers of people at our events, numbers of commandments kept, numbers of events held, or numbers of purposes fulfilled. His own standard is different, faithfulness. His own standard is His Son Jesus Christ, perfection. We are far from his standard; a 10% improvement on nothing is still not 100%. God help us!

What is the sin at the heart of this mindset? We do these things to build up our own self image as individuals and our public image as organizations. Look at me! I'm a success! Image is the goal and the problem. What is an image? It is another word for an idol. We like to stroke our egos. We like to have our egos stroked. Mmmm, feels so good. Look at me! You like me, you like meee! From the pulpit to the board room the common factor in each of us is our own little stinking idol, Me-Myself-I. We can hide it behind all kinds of high sounding rhetoric. We can whitewash the building with holy words. We can polish it with PR. It is the same stinking idol.

We need to get over ourselves. We are sinners. Without the graciousness of God our Father for the sake of Jesus his Son we are doomed. Our lofty opinions of ourselves and our programs need a reality check. Christ Alone is our hope! His gifts given to us in Word and Sacraments are God's means of life. His life lived through us in our vocation of loving service to our neighbor in the world is God's method. These are the spiritual tools for reaching the world.

2 Cor. 10:3-5 [ESV] For though we walk in the flesh, we are not waging war according to the flesh. For the weapons of our warfare are not of the flesh but have divine power to destroy strongholds. We destroy arguments and every lofty opinion raised against the knowledge of God, and take every thought captive to obey Christ. . . .

Our programs, our damned lies, our statistics won't help us. God considers only One, the Righteous One, Jesus as a success. Apart from Him we have nothing. In Him alone are we given the victory of forgiveness, life, and salvation!

Amen.